지방자치단체 혼인장려금 정책이 혼인 건수에 미치는 영향 - 통제집단합성법을 활용한 분석 -

초록

This study empirically analyzes the causal effects and fiscal efficiency of marriage incentive policies implemented by local governments as a countermeasure to population decline. By selecting Buyeo-gun and Seongju-gun, which introduced identical incentive schemes in 2022, as treatment areas and applying the Synthetic Control Method to estimate counterfactual marriage trends, we find that no sustained or significant increase in the number of marriages was observed in either region after policy implementation. The estimation of deadweight loss revealed that the net increase in marriages over a cumulative three-year post-treatment period was nearly zero, with the cumulative deadweight loss ratio reaching 100%. This suggests that the incentive merely functioned to finely adjust the 'Tempo' (timing) of marriage registrations for groups that would have married even without the policy, rather than structurally increasing the 'Quantum' (total volume) of marriages. In conclusion, future local population policies should shift away from simple short-term cash transfers toward addressing structural factors such as employment and housing that may influence marriage decisions. Ultimately, future policy frameworks should be re-evaluated based on the empirical evidence of fiscal efficiency to prevent the distortion of regional policy portfolios and ensure long-term sustainability.

키워드