‘재분배의 역설’에 관한 재검증: OECD 21개 국가에 대한 결합시계열회귀분석, 1995∼2019

초록

This study reexamines the ‘paradox of redistribution,’ which posits that welfare states with universalistic institutional structures achieve greater redistribution. Using pooled time-series cross-sectional data for 21 OECD countries from 1995 to 2019, the analysis tests whether this paradox still holds in the post-2000 context. The results confirm that the paradox remains valid. First, larger redistributive budget size are associated with greater redistribution. Second, higher levels of universalism and lower levels of low-income targeting expand redistributive budget size, reflecting a persistent trade-off between low-income targeting and redistributive budget size. Third, higher levels of universalism and lower levels of low-income targeting are associated with greater redistribution. These findings suggest that, despite socio-economic changes that have weakened the classical foundations of the paradox, the institutional structure of welfare states continues to shape redistributive outcomes.

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