Forecasting regional long-run energy demand: A functional coefficient panel approach

  • Chang, Y.
  • Choi, Y.
  • Kim, C.S.
  • Miller, J.I.
  • Park, J.Y.
Citations

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18
Citations

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21

초록

Previous authors have pointed out that energy consumption changes both over time and nonlinearly with income level. Recent methodological advances using functional coefficients allow panel models to capture these features succinctly. In order to forecast a functional coefficient out-of-sample, we use functional principal components analysis (FPCA), reducing the problem of forecasting a surface to a much easier problem of forecasting a small number of smoothly varying time series. Using a panel of 180 countries with data since 1971, we forecast energy consumption to 2035 for Germany, Italy, the US, Brazil, China, and India. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.

키워드

Energy consumptionFunctional coefficient panel modelFunctional principal component analysisEnergy utilizationTime series analysisEnergy demandsFunctional coefficientsIncome levelsPanel modelPrincipal components analysisForecastingdemand-side managementenergy marketenergy useforecasting methodpanel dataprincipal component analysisregional economytime seriesBrazilChinaGermanyIndiaItalyUnited States
제목
Forecasting regional long-run energy demand: A functional coefficient panel approach
저자
Chang, Y.Choi, Y.Kim, C.S.Miller, J.I.Park, J.Y.
DOI
10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105117
발행일
2021-04
유형
Article
저널명
Energy Economics
96