부동산 규제정책은 가격안정화에 성공하였는가?

초록

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the impact of real estate policies such as excess housing demand, financial regulations, and transaction restriction regulations on housing prices. Three policy indices were developed as variables to measure demand-side real estate policies, and empirical analysis was conducted using them as major explanatory variables. The financial regulation policy index (FRPI) was established by investigating financial regulations such as LTV, DTI, and DSR, and the transaction restriction policy index (TRPI) was organized in a time series by examining the details of transaction restrictions such as overheated speculation zones and speculative areas. In addition, the excess demand for housing, defined as the difference between the supply and demand of the real estate market, was estimated by monthly. The result of empirical showed that the effect of stabilizing housing prices of the FRPI and the TRPI was limited. On the other hand, excess housing demand was positively related to housing prices, and the increase in excess housing demand since the mid-2010s turned out to be a main background of the rise in housing prices.

키워드