틈새정당으로서 독일 대안당의 성공: 메귀드의 PSO이론을 토대로

초록

This article aims to examine the stunning rise of the German radical right party Alternative für Deutschland(AfD) from the perspective of party competition. This party, which was formed in 2013, has occupied the political space to the right of the center-right CDU/CSU and has already become a considerable political force in parliamentary politics. There is no doubt that this success is largely attributable to the refugee crisis in the mid-2010s. However, given that it is the only factor in their success, it does not explain why an anti-immigration/refugee party is successful in Germany only at this time rather than previously, when immigration/refugee issues were salient. Party competition must also be considered. To take this into account, this article, based on Meguid’s PSO theory that the strategic behavior of mainstream parties plays a critical role in the electoral success of niche parties, analyses party competition on immigration/refugee issues on three aspects: position, salience, and ownership. Its main arguments are as follows: First, the issue salience increased by the refugee crisis made it impossible for the German mainstream parties to choose to dismiss the immigration/refugee issue, and their active behaviors made the issues more salient. Second, the center-right CDU/CSU did not employ an accommodative strategy to move toward the position of the radical right competitor owing to its consistent shift to the left in the post-Kohl era and the risk of losing old supporters. Third, as a consequence, the ownership of the immigration/refugee issue was transferred from the CDU/CSU to the AfD.

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