금융시스템 특성과 소비위험 측정:비선형적 접근의 응용

초록

Purpose : This study purposes to evaluate consumption risk by applying regression analysis with nonlinearly transformed GDP growth rates. Research design, data, methodology : This paper considers data for 116 countries from 1970 to 2019 and includes square root of GDP growth rates as a regressor for the regression analysis. The estimate for the square root of GDP growth rate is to be used for evaluating the partial derivative of per capita consumption growth rate with respect to per capita GDP growth rate. In this study, those calculated derivatives are used as a measure of consumption risk. Results : The results show that the square root of GDP growth rate has significant effects on the consumption growth rate for 30 advanced countries while it has no significant impacts for 87 developing countries. For those advanced economies, this study calculates the partial derivatives using the estimates for the square root of GDP growth rates. According to the results for the partial derivative, consumption risk for advanced countries decrease with their GDP growth rates and, in addition, decrease at slower speed for the larger GDP growth rates. In contrast, consumption risk is found to be independent of GDP growth rates for the developing countries. Conclusions : The results suggest that business cycles affect consumption risk for the advanced countries while they have no relationship with consumption risk for the developing countries. A possible implication for such difference is that different county-level of financial system can lead to contrast in consumption risk between advanced and developing countries.

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