공간계량모형에 의한 서울시 에너지 소비 분석과 정책과제: 전력과 도시가스 소비를 중심으로

초록

Greenhouse gases have been global concerns in that the excess emissions of the gases threaten the ecology and life of human-being. Although we face the debate whether greenhouse gas emissions cause global warming, academia has the scientific consensus that the emissions are strongly associated with climate change. This study aims to test density, income and productivity, and real estate development hypotheses for identifying impacts of key factors on energy consumption with data in Seoul in 2005 and 2006 and then suggest the relevant policies. For analyzing the effects of the factors on electricity and gas consumption, this study applied Ordinary Least Square (OLS),Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR), and Spatial Error Model (SEM). This study confirms that the higher density of population and household is associated with the lower electricity consumption while employment and firm density has the opposite effects. In the models for gas use, higher household density decreases the use while higher firm density tends to appreciate the gas consumption. Further,higher residential and commercial-office land prices, the proxy of income and productivity, decrease the electricity use. However, only commercial-office land prices raise the level of gas use. In electricity and gas use models, higher total floor areas of commercial-office and residential property tend to increase the energy and gas consumption. Based on the outputs from the models, this study suggests a few insightful policies. First, we need policies to control energy consumption based on the characteristics of households and firms. Second, the policies to reduce energy use and carbon emissions should consider the consumption behavior and income level of households and characteristics of urban spatial structure. Third, central and local governments need to provide information on energy consumption and carbon emission with Internet and other information technology. Finally, central and local governments should support constructing green building and energy-saving compact cities more actively.

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