건화물선 해운시장의 변동성에 영향을 미치는 요인들의 장기적 균형관계 분석

초록

The drybulk shipping market has high freight rate volatility in the chartering market and variousand complex factors affecting the market. In the unstable economic situation caused by theCOVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the BDI plunged due to a decrease in trade volume, but turned fromthe end of 2020 and maintained a booming period until the end of 2022. The main reason for themarket change is the decrease in the available fleet that can actually be operated for cargo transportdue to port congestion by the COVID-19 pandemic, regardless of the fleet and trade volumevolatility that have affected the drybulk shipping market in the past. A decrease in the actual usablefleet due to vessel waiting at port by congestion led to freight increase, and the freight increasein charting market led to an increase in second-hand ship and new-building ship price inlong-term equilibrium relationship. In the past, the drybulk shipping market was determined by the volatility of fleet and tradevolume. but, in the future, available fleet volume volatility by pandemics, environmental regulationsand climate will be the important factors affecting BDI. To response to the IMO carbon emission reduction in 2023, it is expected that ship speed willbe slowed down and more ships are expected to be needed to transport the same trade volume. This slowdown is expected to have an impact on drybulk shipping market, such as a increase infreight and second-hand ship and new-building ship price due to a decrease in available fleetvolume.

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