건설업체의 재무건전성모형 추정과 건설업의스트레스 테스트

초록

We examine the influence of the macro variables on the financial soundness of the construction industry. We estimate the financial soundness model with three macro variables, namely, the change in house price, interest rates and the change in GDP as explanatory variables using the panel data of the listed as well as the unlisted construction firms in Korea for the 2000-2009 period. We find that the house price and the GDP have a positive influence, while interest rates have a negative influence, on the financial soundness of the construction firms. Next, we estimate the impact of two macro shocks in the form of a house price drop and an interest rate increase on the probability of financial distress in the construction industry. We find that unlisted firms are more vulnerable to the housing market and interest rate stresses than listed firms showing that loans to the smaller firms without access to the capital markets have a greater credit risk suggesting that the financial institutions which have lent to the unlisted firms face a greater credit loss.

키워드